Champions League Knockouts: What Changes and Why It Matters
August 17, 2025
Knockouts are strategic. Without the away‑goals rule, first legs skew slightly more conservative at the top end, increasing draw probability. Second legs amplify state dependence: a single early goal can flip the entire script. We adjust:
- Pre‑game priors with tie context (leading team vs chasing team).
- Extra‑time probabilities for tight ties.
- Experience weights—elite clubs manage variance better under pressure.