Turning xG into Edges on Totals
August 15, 2025
We estimate expected goals for each side, but totals depend on variance:
- Pressing duels create transitions → more shots in short windows.
- Set‑piece quality turns low‑tempo games into scoring spikes.
- Game state: early leads deflate pace; late chases inflate it.
Rules of thumb:
- Over 2.5 needs more than 2.5 expected goals; we look for 2.6–2.8+ and conducive styles.
- Unders thrive in low‑transition, compact matchups with limited set‑piece threat.