Derbies & Psychology: When Data Meets Narrative
August 13, 2025
Derbies are noisy: motivation spikes, refereeing becomes harder, and game states swing faster. Our response:
- Reduce pre‑match confidence and widen error bars.
- Elevate card markets and unders when officiating is lenient.
- Avoid over‑reacting to historical narratives—calibrated numbers first, story second.
Prediction is not about bravado; it’s about properly pricing uncertainty.