Congestion & Travel: The Hidden Edges Most Models Miss
August 11, 2025
Fixtures don’t happen in a vacuum. Consider three games in eight days with a long away trip in the middle. Even elite squads suffer performance drift. We quantify:
- Rest days between fixtures (and whether they were full‑intensity matches).
- Travel distance and time zones.
- Rotation depth: how much quality the second unit loses relative to starters.
- Style sensitivity: high‑press sides degrade faster under load.
The market reacts to headline injuries; it often underreacts to soft fatigue. That’s where small, repeatable edges live.